'10 Season Preview: TFC, Preki target postseason

Soccer Betting Lines

03/23/2010 - Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Toronto FC needed to beat the worst team in MLS in its final match last season to qualify for the playoffs for the first time, and lost 5-0.

Interim manager Chris Cummins paid the price, and the Canadian club turned the team over to former U.S. international player and Chivas USA coach Preki.

Cummins did well in his first season, especially after stepping in to lead the team following the unexpected departure of John Carver last April.

Toronto was 10-10-9 entering its final match, but Cummins' final match against Red Bull New York, which won just five games last year, convinced the club to move on to its fourth coach in as many years.

Preki led Chivas USA to 40 combined wins over the last three seasons, and into the playoffs each year. Chivas failed to advance past the first round, though, and Preki left the club through mutual agreement after last season.

Toronto immediately felt the presence of Preki, who decided not to pick up the option on former MLS MVP Amado Guevara. Earlier this month, he shipped veteran midfielder Carl Robinson and veteran defender Adrian Serioux out of Toronto.

Although those three players combined for 69 starts last year, Preki obviously didn't think they fit into his club.

Despite the shakeup, the players still at Toronto FC already believe Preki has the team headed in the right direction.

"As a coach, he's done a great job, so he's going to bring the right things to this club," Toronto's Jim Brennan told the Toronto Star.

"The three years since (Toronto's) been a part of MLS there's been baby steps towards a better club," Toronto midfielder Julian De Guzman told the Toronto Star. "But I think now that Preki's on our side, we're looking for that jump into a playoff spot."

Toronto has steadily improved, going from six wins in its first season in 2007 to nine in 2008, and 10 last season.

One more victory - all Toronto needed last season - would likely be enough for Preki to extend his postseason streak as a coach.

TFC will lean on Brennan in the back, who returns along with Nana Attakora and Nick Garcia as likely starters for Preki. Marvell Wynne started 21 matches but has not been a big part of Preki's plans this preseason, and his role remains uncertain.

Preki brought Ty Harden to Toronto in February a deal with the Colorado Rapids and he could find a starting role in the back in front of Stefan Frei, who was in goal for 26 matches during his rookie season.

"We are excited to have (Ty) on board with us," Preki told Toronto's website. "He's a good quality, young defender and there are many things I like about him."

Dwayne De Rosario, who has played on four MLS Cup winners, led the team with 11 goals and tied Guevara for the team lead in assists with six last year, and will be a versatile threat in midfield or at forward for Preki.

De Guzman joined Toronto in September of last year as a Designated Player, and appeared in five matches. The Canadian international adds another dynamic, and should team with De Rosario in some fashion to fuel Toronto.

Sam Cronin quietly made 26 starts in his rookie season last year, and returns in midfield as another solid option.

Toronto's biggest concern is up top, where Chad Barrett is the top option - if De Rosario remains in midfield. Barrett had five goals and three assists last season but with Danny Dichio retired, Pablo Vitti gone, and Ali Gerba's future in doubt - he will reportedly be released - TFC will likely have to sign a few new players to fill the void.

Argentine midfielder Martin Saric, who has been on trial with Toronto, paired with De Guzman in midfield in a recent preseason game, and if he is signed, it would allow De Rosario to play a more offensive role.

With the regular season yet to start, Preki didn't want to make playoff plans - although that's obviously his eventual goal - because the boss knows Toronto needs to "become a group that plays for each other," he told the Toronto Star, if it hopes to take the next step.

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FOOTBALL BETTING : Crabtree's base deal: six years, $32 million

Football Betting

In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.

And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.

Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.

So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.

Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)

The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.

As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.

The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.

In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.

Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.

And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.

So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.

There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.

So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.

And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.

There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)

Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.

Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.

Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.

So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.

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