This Week in Auto Racing July 2 - 4

Autoracing Betting Lines

06/30/2010 - Daytona Beach, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - NASCAR returns to "The World Center of Racing," while the IZOD IndyCar Series visits the "Finger Lakes" region in upstate New York this Fourth of July weekend.

NASCAR

Sprint Cup Series

Coke Zero 400 - Daytona International Speedway - Daytona Beach, FL

The next chapter in NASCAR's "boys, have at it" takes place this Four of July weekend when the Sprint Cup Series returns to Daytona International Speedway for its "mid-summer classic."

This year's 400-mile race at Daytona could very well be a classic...or perhaps a demolition derby.

With what we've seen in previous Sprint Cup races this season, particularly last week at Sonoma, CA, emotions are running high due to the level of aggression on the track.

At this time of the year, it certainly is hot and humid in Central Florida, so don't be surprised if tempers flare in the garage or on pit road before DIS begins its big post-race fireworks show over Lake Lloyd.

"If you're going to take someone out or wrong someone on track, you've got to be ready for the same thing down the road and the points and what's going to come back to you," said Jimmie Johnson, who has won the last two races. "It's awfully exciting. There's plenty to write about and talk about right now."

This will be the third of four restrictor plate races this season. With the Sprint Cup car now running a spoiler and having a slightly different aerodynamic package than the car used for the Daytona 500 in February, and then factor in a larger restrictor plate hole size -- 1 1/32 inch -- Saturday night's race at Daytona should be a thriller.

"With the bigger plate and with the spoiler on the car, the cars are going to pull up faster than they did before, that's for sure," current points leader Kevin Harvick said. "We saw it was a lot faster at the Daytona 500, and now we have a bigger plate. It will be exciting, and you will see a lot of cars passing and moving and going and doing what they did at the Daytona 500, just a little faster."

Harvick's most recent win came in April at Talladega. He also won the pre- season Budweiser Shootout at Daytona.

This race at Daytona also will be the last one before the entire 2.5-mile track surface will be repaved. Daytona last underwent a repaving in 1978.

Earlier this year, the Daytona 500 was marred by two sizeable potholes that emerged on the asphalt between turns one and two just past the half-way point in the race. NASCAR halted the Daytona 500 twice for a total of two and a half hours, as track personnel repaired the potholes.

Additional repairs were made to the damaged area of the track days after the Daytona 500.

"I wasn't real pleased at all to hear that the racetrack was going to have to be repaved, but the time has just taken its toll on the racetrack and some things you just have to do," Harvick said. "I don't think anybody would repave the racetrack if it just didn't absolutely have to be done.

"I feel pretty confident with everything that everybody said from the racetrack that the repairs are good and have tested the Nationwide car there, with the new patch in the corner. Couldn't even tell it was there."

Harvick was one of 26 drivers who participated in last month's two-day test session of the new Nationwide Series car, which makes its debut in Friday night's 250-mile race at Daytona.

With nine races remaining before the championship Chase begins September 19 at New Hampshire, the Chase bubble is tightening up. Dale Earnhardt Jr. is just three points behind 12th-place Carl Edwards. Ryan Newman is 15 points outside the top-12, and Clint Bowyer is only one marker behind Newman.

"There are a lot of guys fighting for that spot," Edwards said. "I think I can safely say that this is going be one of the toughest years to make that Chase that we've had."

Earnhardt Jr. has finished 11th or better in the last three races, while Edwards has finished no better than 12th since five races ago at Dover.

Jamie McMurray, currently 17th in points, has won two of the last three restrictor plate races. McMurray won at Talladega in November when he drove for Roush Fenway Racing. His Daytona 500 victory earlier this year came in his first race with Earnhardt-Ganassi Racing.

"It will be cool to get back to Daytona and just to see that track again," McMurray said. "Certainly leaving there after winning the 500, it is crazy what you are going through."

McMurray will try to become the first driver to win both races at Daytona in the same season since Bobby Allison accomplished the feat in 1982. McMurray won the July race at Daytona in 2007.

Forty-five teams are on the preliminary entry list for the Coke Zero 400.

Nationwide Series

Subway Jalapeno 250 - Daytona International Speedway - Daytona Beach, FL

After three-plus years of design, testing and back-and-forth discussion with teams about the proper rollout time, the new Nationwide Series car will make its debut on Friday at Daytona International Speedway.

Ford will showcase its popular Mustang. The auto maker currently uses its Fusion in Sprint Cup and Nationwide, while its F-150 model competes in the Camping World Truck Series. The Mustang has been used in NHRA drag racing, Grand-Am and Formula D drifting.

Dodge will introduce the Challenger, while Chevrolet will bring a new model of its Impala, and Toyota will keep its standard version of the Camry.

Nationwide teams partake in a special four-hour practice session at Daytona on Wednesday.

"I don't really know what to expect this weekend with the new car, but I'm still excited about it," said Nationwide veteran Jason Leffler, who drives the No.38 Toyota for Braun Racing. "Going into this weekend, there's not much you can do to be prepared, but just make sure your car is put together right and go from there.

"Having that test day on Wednesday is really important and will allow us more time to adjust to these cars and give us a better idea of what to expect on Friday night."

Twenty-six drivers and 32 cars representing 12 teams participated in last month's two-day test session of the new car at Daytona.

"It's really a neat looking race car, said Kevin Harvick, a Sprint Cup regular and part-time Nationwide competitor. "Climbing in and out of it, you realize how much more comfortable it is from a driver's standpoint to have more room in the safety aspects of it.

"I think it's going to be a pretty neat race this weekend. The cars move around and slide around a lot. I'm really excited about the new car. The best part about it is that 18 car [Kyle Busch] won't have those cars to race any more, so hopefully we can close that competition gap on the Nationwide side."

The new car also will race at Michigan (August 14), Richmond (September 10) and Charlotte (October 15). It is targeted for full integration in Nationwide next year.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. also will add excitement to this race, as he will drive the No.3 Wrangler Chevrolet, which was made famous by his father, Dale Earnhardt.

"This will be a special weekend for us," Earnhardt Jr. said. "We got together with Richard [Childress] and Teresa [Earnhardt] and put this deal together to honor my dad and his induction into the NASCAR Hall of Fame. We're bringing back this Wrangler paint scheme, because it's kind of what started his whole persona as being the tough guy that he was."

Dale Earnhardt holds the record for most Nationwide wins at Daytona with seven. He also won 22 Cup races in the No.3 Wrangler Chevrolet.

"This is a one-time deal," Earnhardt Jr. added. "I have no intentions of making it a habit to run special paint schemes with my dad's number every year, and I'm pretty sure this will be the last time I drive the No.3. It's my dad's number."

Forty-four teams are on the preliminary entry list for the Subway Jalapeno 250.

IZOD INDYCAR SERIES

Camping World GP at The Glen - Watkins Glen International - Watkins Glen, NY

Watkins Glen International kicks off five consecutive street/road course races for the IZOD IndyCar Series. The series will run in the Canadian cities of Toronto and Edmonton before returning to the United States for Mid-Ohio and Sonoma, CA. The next IndyCar oval event is scheduled for August 28 at Chicagoland.

After a fourth-place finish two weeks ago at Iowa, Will Power from Penske Racing reclaimed the championship points lead. Power holds an 11-point advantage over Target Chip Ganassi Racing's Scott Dixon, while Dixon's teammate, Dario Franchitti, dropped to third in points (-14) after his disappointing 18th-place finish at Iowa. Franchitti led the most laps with 69, but suffered a gear-box issue late in the race, which put the defending series champion 36 laps behind.

Power won two of the first four street/road course races this year. He kicked off the season with back-to-back victories at Sao Paulo, Brazil and St. Petersburg, FL.

Ryan Hunter-Reay from Andretti Autosport won the most recent street/road course event held in April at Long Beach, CA. Hunter-Reay's first win in the series came two years ago at Watkins Glen. He drove for the now-defunct Rahal Letterman Racing team at the time.

Last year at Watkins Glen, Justin Wilson put on a dominating performance and easily held off Ryan Briscoe and Dixon in the final laps for the win. Wilson not only scored his second career IndyCar victory, but also gave Dale Coyne Racing its first win in open-wheel competition.

"I think it's one of the best tracks in the world," Wilson said. "Having won there last year I'm going to say that, but it's just a great, fun track. There are a lot of fast corners, and it hasn't lost any of its character with the safety improvements. That's key. When you come out of those fifth-and-fourth gear corners, you know when you've got it right."

One year ago, Wilson became the first non-Ganassi or Penske driver to win an IndyCar race since his victory at Detroit in August 2008 when he drove for Newman/Haas/Lanigan Racing. He is now behind the wheel of the No.22 car for Dreyer and Reinbold Racing.

"I'm focused on this year, hoping we can go back there and be as competitive," said Wilson, who currently sits eighth in points. "It's a different team, but I want to get back that same level of competition. Hopefully we can work it all out and repeat."

Wilson had three top-10 finishes, including two second-place runs, in the four early season street/road course races. He also has started on the outside pole in the last two Watkins Glen races.

Canadian Paul Tracy will be Wilson's teammate at Watkins Glen. Tracy is substituting for the injured Mike Conway in the No.24 Dreyer and Reinbold car. Conway continues to recover from injuries he sustained in a horrifying crash during the final lap of the May 30 Indianapolis 500.

Tracy previously announced that he would drive in the two upcoming Canadian races.

"It's obviously a good feeling to get more races, especially being able to race at The Glen and building up momentum before going into the Canadian events," Tracy said.

Twenty-five teams are on the preliminary entry list for the Camping World Grand Prix at The Glen.

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FOOTBALL BETTING : Crabtree's base deal: six years, $32 million

Football Betting

In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.

And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.

Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.

So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.

Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)

The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.

As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.

The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.

In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.

Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.

And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.

So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.

There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.

So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.

And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.

There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)

Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.

Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.

Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.

So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.

NFL Betting Lines

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Betting Football

NFL Football Betting Online

Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?

I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.

There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.

Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.

For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.

A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.

The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.

Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.

So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.

Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.

“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.

Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.

“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.

It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.

Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.

The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.

“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.

“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”

Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.

The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.

“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”

Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?

“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.