Penny struggles, still leads Dodgers past Mets

Baseball Betting Lines

07/21/2007 - Los Angeles, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Matt Kemp crushed a three-run home run in a five-run fourth inning, and the Los Angeles Dodgers recovered from a shaky outing by Brad Penny to beat the New York Mets, 8-6, at Dodger Stadium.

Penny (12-1) went 6 1/3 innings, allowing four runs -- three earned -- on six hits, with a pair of walks and five strikeouts. With the win, he became the first starting pitcher to open a season 12-1 for the Dodgers since the franchise moved to Los Angeles in 1958.

The right-hander, who is now 7-0 over his last 11 starts, is trying to avoid the second-half letdown that ruined his season last year. He went 10-2 before the All- Star break in 2006, but went just 6-7 in the second half with a 6.25 ERA.

Kemp finished with a pair of hits, three RBI and two runs scored for the Dodgers, who had dropped the first two games of this four-game series. Juan Pierre also had two hits and knocked in a pair of runs, extending his hitting streak to 14 games.

Jorge Sosa (7-5) gave up six runs and eight hits over four innings for New York, which had won three of four coming in. Carlos Beltran and David Wright both contributed two-run home runs.

The Mets jumped on Penny for two runs in the second. Wright drew a leadoff walk, and Carlos Delgado singled before a throwing error by Andre Ethier put runners at second and third with no outs. Ramon Castro's sacrifice fly scored Wright, and after a Marlon Anderson groundout, a base hit by Lastings Milledge plated Delgado for a 2-0 edge.

Wright doubled the lead with a two-run homer in the third, but the Dodgers cut it to 4-1 in the home half when Penny doubled and came home on Pierre's two-out single.

Los Angeles then rallied to take the lead in the fourth. James Loney and Wilson Betemit ripped consecutive one-out singles, and Ethier's base hit cut it to 4-2. Kemp then deposited a hanging breaking ball into the left field stands for a three-run homer, giving the Dodgers a 5-4 lead.

Rafael Furcal kept the inning alive with a two-out, ground-rule double, and Pierre followed with a two-bagger just inside the line at third to make it 6-4.

Russell Martin's fielder's choice grounder in the sixth resulted in a pair of unearned runs for an 8-4 margin. With the bases loaded and one out, Martin hit a grounder to third, and, without a play at the plate, Wright fired to second. The out was recorded, but Ruben Gotay was then charged with a throwing error trying to cut down Furcal at the plate.

Beltran's two-run homer in the eighth cut it to 8-6, but the Mets were shut down the rest of the way by Jonathan Broxton, who struck out Wright and Delgado to end the inning.

Broxton also pitched a perfect ninth for his second save.

Game Notes

Penny is the first Dodgers starter to win seven consecutive decisions since Kevin Brown won nine straight from April 29 to June 17, 2003...The Mets placed second baseman Jose Valentin on the 15-day disabled list with a fractured right tibia and recalled infielder Anderson Hernandez from Triple-A New Orleans...Wright's home run was his first career long-ball against the Dodgers.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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