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02/15/2012 - Coral Gables, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The eighth-ranked North Carolina Tar Heels take to the road in search of their fourth straight ACC win away from Chapel Hill, as they invade the BankUnited Center to take on the dangerous Miami- Florida Hurricanes.
Roy Williams' squad dropped a crucial 85-84 decision to arch rival Duke last week, but bounced back with an impressive 70-52 win over nationally-ranked Virginia this past weekend to move to 8-2 in league play, good for a first- place tie with both Duke and Florida State in the standings.
Jim Larranaga's first season with the Hurricanes has been mildly successful. Miami is making a push for NCAA Tournament consideration, highlighted by a huge win over Duke in Durham. However, the momentum gained by a recent five- game win streak, was halted by last weekend's 64-59 road loss at rival Florida State.
The Tar Heels own a 17-2 advantage in the all-time series with the Hurricanes and have won the last nine meetings, including a 73-56 decision in Chapel Hill back on January 10th.
Virginia held North Carolina well under its season average, but it didn't matter, as the Tar Heels still won the game by 18 points this past weekend at the Smith Center. It was once again UNC's frontcourt that made the difference, headlined by Tyler Zeller. The 7-0 senior just missed a double-double with 25 points and nine rebounds. Forwards Harrison Barnes and John Henson however, were able to pull off the feat. Barnes finished the game with 14 points and 11 rebounds, while Henson tallied 10 points and 10 boards for North Carolina, which outrebounded the Cavaliers, 52-32.
Fueled by the nation's premier frontcourt, North Carolina leads the country in scoring (83.5 ppg). Barnes has the ability to score both inside and out and is averaging a team-best 17.5 ppg (second in the ACC). Zeller isn't far behind at 16.0 ppg (fifth in the conference), while Henson pours in 14.0 ppg (ninth in the league). Henson and Zeller make up quite the rebounding tandem as well. Henson leads the ACC with 10.3 rpg, followed closely by Zeller's 9.6 rpg (third in the ACC). Point guard Kendall Marshall is charged with running the offense and although he isn't much of a scorer (6.8 ppg), he ranks first in the ACC and second nationally in assists (9.6 apg).
When compared to UNC's offensive proficiency, Miami lags pretty far behind. The Hurricanes are averaging a modest 71.5 ppg this year, doing so on .438 shooting. Still, there is scoring depth, as four of the team's five starters are averaging double figures. Kenny Kadji and Durand Scott share the team-lead with 12.6 ppg apiece. Malcolm Grant (12.1 ppg) provides support along the perimeter, while Reggie Johnson (11.4 ppg, team-high 6.9 rpg) does the same up front.
The Hurricanes struggled to find their range against the defensively-gifted Seminoles last time out, shooting a mere 41.4 percent from the floor, including an ugly 27.3 percent from three-point range (5-of-22). Kadji led the way at the offensive end with 14 points. Scott finished with 12 points, while Grant added nine. Johnson however, was neutralized in the game, finishing with a mere four points in the loss.
<< Lobos head to San Diego to take on 13th-ranked Aztecs
San Diego, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Entering the week there were three teams tied
atop the Mountain West Conference standings and two of those programs go up
against each other tonight, as the 13th-ranked San Diego State Aztecs
entertain the New M
<< Lions visit Gaels in pivotal WCC clash
Moraga, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 21st-ranked Saint Mary's-CA Gaels put their
perfect home record on the line for the final time this season, as they
entertain the Lions of Loyola Marymount in a West Coast Conference clash
tonight at McKeon Pav
<< Wildcats and Hoosiers mix it up in Big Ten action
Bloomington, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Big Ten Conference rivals square off in
Bloomington this evening, as the Northwestern Wildcats have come calling on
the 18th-ranked Indiana Hoosiers.
Northwestern comes in sporting a 15-9 overall record, wh
<< Cavs resume lengthy homestand vs. reeling Pacers
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Cleveland Cavaliers will play their fourth game on a
lengthy nine-game homestand tonight, when they entertain the Central Division-
rival Indiana Pacers from Quicken Loans Arena.
Cleveland is in the midst of the longes
Rutgers hits road seeking upset of No. 23 Notre Dame >>
South Bend, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Notre Dame looks to continue its surge up
the conference standings Wednesday when the 23rd-ranked Fighting Irish welcome
Rutgers to the Joyce Center for a Big East Conference clash.
Notre Dame made it six st
Racers and Redhawks duke it out in OVC action >>
Cape Giradeau, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 16th-ranked Murray State Racers head
to the Show Me Center for a rematch with the Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
in what could be another Ohio Valley Conference thriller.
The Racers and Redhawks al
Zambia cracks top 50 in FIFA Rankings >>
Zurich, Switzerland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - For the first time since February 2001
Zambia finds itself in the top 50 in the latest edition of the FIFA/Coca-Cola
Men's World Rankings.
The African Cup of Nations had a big impact on the ranking
Cavs' Irving cleared to return >>
Cleveland, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Cleveland Cavaliers rookie point guard Kyrie
Irving was cleared to return to action.
Cavs team physician Dr. A.J. Cianflocco gave the first-overall pick the go-
ahead on Wednesday, hours before Cleveland
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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